AGP Executive Report

Finland’s budget: The four-party government agreed a €92.5bn budget for 2027 with a €12.4bn deficit, with defence and security costs among the drivers and savings measures continuing. EU foreign policy: 11 EU states, including Finland, urged limits on national vetoes and more use of qualified-majority voting, arguing unanimity can leave the bloc with legitimacy but not strength. Markets: European shares hovered near a one-month low as Middle East tensions pushed bond yields higher and raised inflation worries. Nokia and the index: Nokia is set to rejoin the Euro Stoxx 50, a move that underlines investor focus on its AI-data-centre fibre shift. Data centres in Finland: Finland’s defence and infrastructure backdrop meets the AI build-out: reports say Finland has moved to cut planned financial support for data centres, while new projects and power links are emerging. Health costs: Estonia-style pressure is echoed in Finland too, with expectations that Health Insurance Fund cuts could lengthen waiting lists. Security and drones: The EU summoned Russia’s envoy over a Leipzig “hybrid attack” drone incident, with ministers debating sanctions and Ukraine support.

Eurozone Inflation Watch: Eurostat’s flash estimate puts euro area inflation at 3.3% in August, up from 2.9% in July, with energy prices driving the jump; Finland’s rate eases to 2.4% from 2.5%. Finnish Budget Talks: Finland’s Orpo government starts final 2027 budget negotiations with about €1bn in pre-agreed savings, aiming for improved employment as growth returns. AI Compute & Energy in Finland: OnZero and Helen link an AI data centre in Helsinki to the district heating network, while Cerebras expands AI data-centre capacity in Mikkeli (165 MW planned). Supercomputer Deal: EuroHPC selects Bull for the €387.8m LUMI-AI supercomputer in Kajaani, Finland, using AMD hardware. Mining & Industry: Metso will supply concentrator technology for GTK Mintec’s new Outokumpu pilot plant; Sandvik unveils an autonomous battery-electric drilling concept at Future of Mining 2026. EU Foreign Policy: 11 EU countries, including Finland, push to reduce reliance on unanimity for foreign-policy decisions. Security: Germany blames Russia for an explosive drone incident at Leipzig/Halle airport, part of a wider hybrid-attack pattern. Business Regulation: EU regulators designate ChatGPT, Reddit and Roblox under the Digital Services Act, requiring systemic-risk mitigation.

AI Infrastructure in Finland: EuroHPC has ordered Bull’s €387.8m LUMI-AI supercomputer for Finland, with AMD Instinct MI430X GPUs and 256-core EPYC CPUs, to boost European AI capacity and be deployed at CSC in Kajaani in 2H 2027. AI Data Centres: Cerebras and Compute Nordic Finland are building a phased 165 MW AI data centre in Mikkeli, with the first 50 MW phase already under way. Quantum Hardware Funding: Finnish startup S-Transistors (VTT spin-out) raised €2.6m pre-seed to develop superconducting transistors for cryogenic signal control in quantum computing. Public Procurement & Tech: A new draft on public procurement rules points to more data-driven, automated purchasing—pushing suppliers and agencies toward smarter planning. Defence Contracts: Saab says it has new Finnish Defence Forces orders for the RBS 70 NG air-defence system. Energy & Costs: Fuel prices are set to rise from September 2 as global oil supply remains strained by the Iran war. Migration Pressure: EU migration and Schengen frictions are back in focus after the Ceuta crisis, with calls for tighter asylum rules and faster returns. Business & Labour: Finland’s corporate tax cut plan faces criticism from JHL, which warns it will deepen public finances strain.

AI Supercomputing Boost: The EU has picked French state-owned Bull to build the €387.8m LUMI-AI supercomputer, installed at CSC in Kajaani, Finland, with delivery targeted for late 2027 and a big jump in AI capacity. Quantum Startup Funding: Finnish startup S-Transistors, spun out of VTT, raised €2.6m pre-seed to develop superconducting transistors aimed at more scalable cryogenic quantum computing. Defence Deals with Finland in the Mix: Finland’s President Alexander Stubb says China privately assured Helsinki it would not allow Russia to use nuclear weapons, while Finland also extends defence cooperation with Israel through 2034. Arctic Security Tensions: Russian FM Lavrov warns NATO’s Arctic presence is a direct threat, as Moscow leans on the Northern Sea Route to deepen trade ties. Israel–Greece Air Defence: Israel and Greece signed a €3bn “Achilles Shield” deal for a multi-layer air defence network. Local Business & Industry: Jennmar and Outokumpu expand ground control supply for Finland’s Kemi mine, and Telia Finland rolls out stronger mobile authentication for certificate activation. Culture & Media: Helsinki’s Finnish Film Affair reveals 38 international projects for its 15th edition.

AI Infrastructure Boost: EuroHPC has ordered Bull’s €387.8m LUMI-AI supercomputer for Finland’s CSC in Kajaani, aiming to multiply Europe’s AI capacity tenfold and come online in 2H 2027. Quantum Start-up Funding: VTT-origin S-Transistors raised €2.6m pre-seed to build superconducting transistor tech for scaling cryogenic quantum computers. EU Budget Fight: “Frugal” EU states led by Germany’s Merz are pushing to cut the next seven-year EU budget by several hundred billion euros while still backing higher defence, competitiveness and migration spending. Helsinki Innovation Push: A University of Helsinki-led Business Finland project VALABio is turning dairy and meat side streams into bioactive ingredients and diagnostic tools. Defence Cooperation Politics: Finland’s opposition is attacking a reported extension of military cooperation with Israel through 2034, including the David’s Sling air-defence purchase. Energy Cost Shock: A CREA study says the Iran war and Hormuz disruptions added at least $330bn in extra fossil-fuel import costs globally, with the EU among the biggest hit. Arctic Tensions: Russia’s Lavrov warns NATO is militarising the Arctic, as Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership reshapes regional security cooperation.

Finland–Israel Defence Deal: Finland has quietly extended its defence cooperation memorandum with Israel to 2034, covering R&D and procurement, after earlier extensions and amid domestic opposition criticism. NATO Deterrence Debate: President Alexander Stubb says Russia is unlikely to attack NATO territory, arguing deterrence is stronger than any rival and that recent “2029” warnings are part of an information war. Hybrid Threats in Europe: Reports say Russia is stepping up “gray zone” operations—sabotage, arson, cyberattacks and drone incursions—to raise the cost of supporting Ukraine. Global Defence Bank Push: Canada backs a new Defence, Security and Resilience Bank to fund rearmament, but key G7 economies are still holding back, putting the bank’s top credit-rating hopes in doubt. Arctic Security Context: Analysis highlights how sanctions and reduced Western-Russian ties in the Arctic have reshaped cooperation frameworks, with NATO and Nordic/Baltic integration taking centre stage. Finland Business & Markets: Spinnova has filed for a US IPO and dual listing, aiming to broaden its investor base. Tech & Investment: TechBBQ in Copenhagen drew global founders and investors to discuss AI, quantum, robotics and climate—matchmaking included. Sports (Finnish angle): Sami Pajari won Rally Paraguay for a third straight WRC victory, cutting Elfyn Evans’ lead.

Finland-Russia Security: President Alexander Stubb says Russia is unlikely to attack NATO territory before 2029, but urges Europe to prepare for worst-case scenarios to deter escalation. Defense Cooperation: Finland has quietly extended its 10-year defense cooperation pact with Israel through 2034, covering research, weapons development and procurement. Ukraine Stakes: Stubb argues Ukraine is the “best guarantee” of European security and warns that if Ukraine loses, Europe loses too. Arctic Trade & Power: The Arctic route is increasingly reshaping global commerce and geopolitics as shipping corridors emerge beyond the Suez path. Markets & Industry: Spinnova has filed its SEC registration statement for a proposed U.S. IPO and dual listing, while Boliden’s $1.3B Nexa deal reshuffles the global zinc and silver map. Business & Society: Finnish citizens are outraged over Stubb’s Russia policy, with critics linking it to economic pressures at home. Energy Costs: A Finland-based think tank says the Iran war has driven a major jump in global energy import bills, hitting the EU hardest.

Finland–Israel Defence Pact: Finland’s opposition says the government handled a 10-year Israel defence materiel memorandum too quietly, after Yle reported it was signed without a public announcement; parties link the move to Finland ending multi-year UNRWA funding. EU Competition Watch: The European Commission has issued a Statement of Objections to Sappi and UPM over a planned joint venture that could reshape the communication-paper market, warning of higher prices and fewer choices. Baltic Security Push: Baltic Sea states are stepping up coordination against hybrid threats, with Germany convening regional ministers and pointing to drone and sabotage incidents affecting infrastructure. UNRWA Funding Cut: Finland will not renew support for UNRWA as European governments review funding after a U.S. watchdog referred more than 100 current/former staff over alleged Hamas links. Local Economy & Housing: Tallinn is drafting a new comprehensive urban plan to guide housing, business locations and infrastructure over coming decades, with residents able to submit proposals. Energy Economics: A Helsinki-based analysis says the Iran war has driven over $330bn in extra fossil-fuel import costs globally, while renewables have helped some countries cushion the shock.

Cyber & Fraud Risk: A survey for OP Financial Group says about 69% of Finnish businesses find AI makes scam attempts harder to spot, while nearly one in three report more payment and invoice fraud targeting them. UNRWA Funding: Finland will not renew its €20m multi-year UNRWA deal, shifting future support to other humanitarian channels like the World Food Programme. AI & Security: Finland’s push to classify and bundle security services is highlighted as Telia Finland offers security-classified services with Insta VPN and Gateway. EU Budget Pressure: Finland joins Germany, Sweden, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands in demanding “several hundred billion” euro cuts to the next EU long-term budget. Defence & Hybrid Threats: Baltic Sea states, including Finland, are stepping up coordination against hybrid warfare, with a new focus on drone and critical-infrastructure protection. Arctic Industry: Steerprop in Rauma wins its first U.S. Coast Guard order for propulsion systems for four Arctic Security Cutters. Energy Transition: Finland is backing e-methanol for shipping via investment tax credits, as Europe scales up low-emission fuels and vessels.

Finland’s UN funding shift: Finland will not renew its multi-year funding deal for UNRWA, ending a €20m contribution after the agreement expires, while saying it will keep supporting humanitarian work via other agencies. Courtroom politics: Finnish prosecutors are asking the Court of Appeal to increase Simon Ekpa’s six-year terrorism-related sentence as he appeals his conviction; the hearing is expected within three weeks. Nordic defence procurement: Steerprop in Rauma won its first order for U.S. Coast Guard Arctic Security Cutters, supplying propulsion systems for four vessels delivered 2027–2029; Finland also ordered Saab’s RBS 70 NG air defence upgrade (valued at $126m). Baltic security coordination: Germany and Baltic Sea states agreed to boost drone defence and set up a Baltic hybrid-threat taskforce amid rising Russian-linked incidents. EU budget pressure: Six net contributor countries including Finland demand “several hundred billion” euro cuts to the EU’s next long-term budget, warning current proposals don’t fit member-state finances. Energy & industry: Nvidia is reportedly “matchmaking” Nordic data-centre capacity to speed AI build-outs; Amazon signed Sweden PPAs for ~200MW. Disaster watch: Nepal-Tibet flash floods have killed at least 579 with 1,900+ missing, and rescue work is resuming after fears of a second surge.

Nordic Capital Markets: Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland are exploring a merger of their national stock exchanges into a single Nordic market to boost liquidity and cross-border listings, with the Nordic Compass alliance still in an early, no-decisions stage. Finland Housing: Statistics Finland reports old dwellings in housing companies fell 3.4% year-on-year in July 2026, with declines across large towns including Turku (-6.4%) and Vantaa (-6.2%). Citizenship Fraud: Finnish police suspect a long-running scheme where at least 12 Russians obtained Finnish citizenship via fake employment and language-test arrangements, with investigations also covering forgery and fraud. Alternative Proteins Funding: European alternative-protein firms raised €236m in private investment in H1 2026 (+56%), driven mainly by precision and biomass fermentation. Rare Disease Research: Chiesi Global Rare Diseases presented new Fabry and alpha-mannosidosis data at SSIEM 2026 in Helsinki. Tourism Push: Latvia’s LIAA and industry groups agreed on joint actions for 2027–2029 to strengthen tourism competitiveness, including marketing scenarios and business support. Global Disaster Watch: Nepal–Tibet flash floods have killed hundreds and left 1,400+ missing, including many foreign tourists.

EU Budget Standoff: Germany and five “frugal” states (Denmark, Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Sweden) are pushing to cut the EU’s 2028–2034 long-term budget by “several hundred billion euros,” rejecting further common borrowing as talks enter a decisive phase. Citizenship Fraud Probe: Finnish police and the Border Guard suspect at least 12 Russians obtained Finnish citizenship via fake employment and language tests, with an investigation tracing alleged activity back over 20 years. Nuclear Waste Milestone: Posiva has started drilling the first deposition hole at Onkalo near Olkiluoto, using a massive boring machine delivered in 2022, marking progress toward final disposal. Space & Defense Business: ICEYE set up a South Korean unit (ICEYE Korea) and signed cooperation with Seoul National University, targeting SAR intelligence and AI image analysis. Urban Air Mobility Study: Electra, Helsinki and Haaga-Helia will study “access points” for its ultra-short EL9 flights, including non-airport locations, with a focus on Helsinki–Tallinn demand. Nordic Cities Shine: Copenhagen tops the Happy City Index 2026, with Helsinki close behind and Nordic cities dominating the upper ranks.

Finland’s pay momentum: Statistics Finland reports wage and salary earnings up 3.4% in Q2 (real earnings +1.6%), with average monthly pay around €4,300. EU competition: The European Commission has issued objections to a planned UPM–Sappi joint venture in the paper business, raising competition concerns. Stablecoin shake-up: Revolut starts distributing a euro-backed stablecoin (EURR) in Denmark, Poland and Portugal, while Tether’s USDT remains delisted across MiCA-licensed exchanges in the EEA. AI compute push: AM Intelligence orders about 9,000 NVIDIA Rubin GPUs for an AI factory in Hyderabad, with Finland included in its planned compute-as-a-service rollout. Defense tech & space: Basemark demos real-time data fusion for Patria vehicles using ICEYE satellite ISR; ICEYE also sets up a Korean unit to expand defense and intelligence ties. Arctic connectivity: Kelluu bets on small autonomous hydrogen airships for persistent Arctic surveillance. Helsinki–Tallinn mobility: Electra, the City of Helsinki and Haaga-Helia sign an MOU to study direct aviation across the Gulf of Finland. Security concerns in the Baltics: A leaked letter warns of a deteriorating Russian threat environment, citing more airspace violations and drone incursions. Disaster watch: Flash floods and landslides in Nepal/Tibet have killed at least 160 and left hundreds missing, including 34 Australians.

EU Budget Standoff: Germany’s Merz is rallying Finland and other leaders to push for “hundreds of billions” in cuts to the EU’s next 2028–2034 budget, with defence and security taking priority and tougher democracy conditions proposed. Ukraine Defence Industrialisation: Kyiv’s “Coalition of the Willing” meeting signals a shift from emergency support to institutionalised defence production, as European firms transfer classified tech for long-range missile capability. Competition Watchdog: The European Commission has raised objections to a UPM–Sappi joint venture over potential competition harm in communication paper markets, issuing a statement of objections. Finland Military Procurement: Finland’s Defence Forces ordered €14m of FPV drones for conscript training, expanding drone-warfare capability across brigade units. Labour Market Glimmer: Finland’s unemployment rate remains above 10% but vacancies are rising and employment stabilising, with hopes for improvement in long-term joblessness. Global Business Tech: Kao is rolling out Curél across Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland from September. Travel Shock: Flash floods in Nepal and Tibet killed at least 98 and left hundreds missing, including dozens of UK nationals.

Finnish biotech finance: Faron Pharmaceuticals says it will start its randomised Phase IIb BEXERA trial in the second half of 2026, after a rights issue completed in April. The study will test bexmarilimab plus standard azacitidine in higher-risk myelodysplastic syndrome, enrolling 90 patients across up to 35 sites in the US, Europe and the UK, with Parexel set to run it. Energy storage deal: Alpiq is buying the Bollingstedt battery energy storage system in Germany (103.5MW / 238MWh) from ECO STOR, adding its first operating large-scale BESS in Germany to Alpiq’s flexibility portfolio. AI and capital markets: Aggreko plans to list in New York, while Finnish health wearable maker Oura is reported to be targeting a US IPO in September at a valuation above $16bn. Media costs in Finland: Finnish viewers are shifting toward ad-supported “hybrid” streaming to cut subscription bills, with hybrid share rising to 21% this year. Policy and preparedness: Finland’s STUK says an IAEA team is reviewing the country’s radiation emergency preparedness in a first EPREV peer review mission.

Finland-Russia Hybrid Threats: Prime Minister Petteri Orpo says Russia is escalating hybrid attacks across Europe, with suspected sabotage linked to Russian intelligence being treated as more likely after incidents in Estonia, Bulgaria, Italy and Germany. Ukraine War & Energy Pressure: Ukraine’s drone campaign hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar, killing two and injuring others, while Russia claims large-scale drone interceptions; Moscow also moves to tighten state control over inadequately protected critical infrastructure. Aviation Disruption for Finns: Finnair suspends all flights between Helsinki and Dubai for the winter season (Oct 25, 2026–Mar 27, 2027) citing Middle East security, and Finland also warns of wider instability affecting routes. EV Charging Use-Case: Kempower reports that public charging sites with more plugs see far higher utilization than sites with higher installed power, pushing operators toward plug access and smarter power sharing. EU Enlargement Overhaul: The European Commission prepares reforms to the enlargement process, including gradual integration and tougher rule-of-law safeguards, with a “Helsinki moment” framing. AI Compute Push: AM Intelligence orders 9,000 Nvidia Vera Rubin systems for an AI factory in Hyderabad, with planned capacity also tied to Finland among other markets. Defence Industry Moves: Patria-related Nordic vehicle orders continue, while Finland’s drone production cooperation with Ukraine remains in focus.